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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 83

Washington Commanders 20 – Chicago Bears 37

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 85-C.Turner to WAS 26 for 9 yards (53-T.Edwards, 31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 41, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.26 EP