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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 3 at the 19
Chicago Bears 37 – Washington Commanders 20
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 8-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The Three Options
GO
+0.32 EP
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.13 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -1.16 EP
KICK
+1.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT
-0.83 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
