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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 55

Chicago Bears 27 – Washington Commanders 11

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to WAS 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 30 for 20 yards (22-E.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model