Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 76

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 10

(2:03) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CHI 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 6 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model