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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 28

Washington Commanders 20 – Chicago Bears 30

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model