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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 36

Chicago Bears 17 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:09) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to WAS 35 for 1 yard (90-M.Sweat; 57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.41 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model