4th & Data
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIN
56.4%
CAR
43.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.280 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Bryce Young in place of Andy Dalton)
  • CAR defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
CAR 20
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Lewis Cine S Out Hamstring
Jaren Hall QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Ankle
Garrett Bradbury C Questionable Back

CAR

Xavier Woods S Out Hamstring
Miles Sanders RB Questionable Groin
Jonathan Mingo WR Questionable Concussion
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 21
–
CAR 13

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 TD CAR (10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 42-S.Franklin at CAR 1. 42-S.Franklin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 14:59 FG CAR (14:59) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. MIN 0 – CAR 10
  • Q2 09:49 TD MIN (9:49) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG CAR (:02) 4-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. MIN 7 – CAR 13
  • Q3 04:09 TD MIN (4:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], RECOVERED by MIN-98-D.Wonnum at MIN 49. 98-D.Wonnum for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – CAR 13
  • Q3 00:07 TD MIN (:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-S.Tuttle, Defensive Offside, declined. MIN 20 – CAR 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:32) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CAR 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 31 for 13 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (5:14) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to MIN 41 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks; 22-H.Smith).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (14:59) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 49 for 5 yards (23-C.Henderson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to MIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:50) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-11-N.Thompson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to MIN 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 30 for 7 yards (45-G.Ricci).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:47) 10-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to MIN 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell to MIN 20 for 12 yards (22-J.Robinson). PENALTY on MIN-11-N.Thompson, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIN 8.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:38) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to CAR 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 28 for 12 yards (11-N.Thompson). PENALTY on CAR-41-M.Farley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 23.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to MIN 42, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell to MIN 44 for 2 yards (45-G.Ricci).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

    (8:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (7:32) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to CAR 11, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 26 for 15 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to MIN 9 for 4 yards (97-H.Phillips).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 18 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 23 for -5 yards (22-H.Smith).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (:02) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right.