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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 10-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to MIN 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell to MIN 20 for 12 yards (22-J.Robinson). PENALTY on MIN-11-N.Thompson, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIN 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP