Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 14

(1:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to MIN 42, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell to MIN 44 for 2 yards (45-G.Ricci).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model