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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.01 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -1.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP