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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to CAR 11, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 26 for 15 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP