4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model