Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to CAR 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 28 for 12 yards (11-N.Thompson). PENALTY on CAR-41-M.Farley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.25 EP
59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model