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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to MIN 9 for 4 yards (97-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.30 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model