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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 49 for 5 yards (23-C.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model