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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CAR
49.3%
SEA
50.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): -0.006 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR crossing 3 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CAR

Bryce Young QB Out Ankle
Justin Houston LB Questionable Calf

SEA

Coby Bryant CB Out Toe
Charles Cross T Out Toe
Will Dissly TE Doubtful Shoulder
Tariq Woolen CB Doubtful Chest
DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Illness
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Hamstring
Jamal Adams S Questionable Knee
DK Metcalf WR Questionable Ribs
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Groin
Phil Haynes G Questionable Calf
Julian Love S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 27
–
SEA 37

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:51 FG CAR (7:51) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 03:37 FG SEA (3:37) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CAR 3 – SEA 3
  • Q2 12:10 FG SEA (12:10) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CAR 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 08:48 FG SEA (8:48) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CAR 3 – SEA 9
  • Q2 05:03 TD CAR (5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – SEA 9
  • Q2 02:44 FG CAR (2:44) 4-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 13 – SEA 9
  • Q2 00:48 FG SEA (:48) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CAR 13 – SEA 12
  • Q3 09:49 FG SEA (9:49) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CAR 13 – SEA 15
  • Q3 03:55 TD SEA (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-75-A.Bradford was injured during the play. CAR 13 – SEA 21
  • Q4 15:00 TD CAR (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – SEA 22
  • Q4 11:45 TD SEA (11:45) 9-K.Walker right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – SEA 28
  • Q4 04:22 TD SEA (4:22) (Shotgun) 79-R.O'Neal reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Bobo for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Der.Brown]. CAR 20 – SEA 35
  • Q4 01:45 TD CAR (1:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – SEA 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to CAR 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 21 for -3 yards (38-B.Russell, 26-Z.Charbonnet).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

    (7:51) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

    (4:58) 9-K.Walker left guard to CAR 28 for 1 yard (96-D.Williams). Official measurement

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (3:37) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:16) 90-A.Barno reported in as eligible. 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (12:10) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 39 for 13 yards (44-J.Jansen).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (8:48) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (2:44) 4-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (:48) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%

    (:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-D.Bootle.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:04) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 24 for 14 yards (57-C.Wooten).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%

    (9:49) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:13) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 5, Center-44-J.Jansen. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 19 for 14 yards (82-T.Tremble).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to CAR 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 32 for no gain (32-Je.Reed).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CAR 27 for -8 yards (90-Ja.Reed).