4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 9-K.Walker left guard to CAR 28 for 1 yard (96-D.Williams). Official measurement

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.41 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model