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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model