4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 15

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model