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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to CAR 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 21 for -3 yards (38-B.Russell, 26-Z.Charbonnet).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model