4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.84 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model