4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 4-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model