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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-D.Bootle.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP