Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 29

(8:13) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 5, Center-44-J.Jansen. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 19 for 14 yards (82-T.Tremble).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.70 EP
75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model