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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SF
59.8%
LA
40.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.259 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 25
–
LA 22
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Samuel Womack CB Out Knee

LA

Ernest Jones LB Questionable Illness
Puka Nacua WR Questionable Oblique
Coleman Shelton C Questionable Toe
Russ Yeast S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 30
–
LA 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 TD SF (8:31) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 02:00 FG LA (2:00) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 7 – LA 3
  • Q2 13:35 FG SF (13:35) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – LA 3
  • Q2 09:55 TD LA (9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – LA 9
  • Q2 01:50 TD LA (1:50) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – LA 16
  • Q2 00:01 TD SF (:01) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – LA 17
  • Q3 01:26 FG SF (1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 20 – LA 17
  • Q4 11:37 TD SF (11:37) 19-D.Samuel left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – LA 17
  • Q4 07:18 FG LA (7:18) 8-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 27 – LA 20
  • Q4 03:02 FG SF (3:02) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 30 – LA 20
  • Q4 00:04 FG LA (:04) 8-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 30 – LA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (2:00) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (13:35) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (7:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:10) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to SF 18, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to LA 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-K.Williams to LA 28 for 11 yards (30-G.Odum; 24-J.Mason).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 63%

    (1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:32) 42-E.Evans punts 72 yards to SF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 3-R.McCloud to SF 26 for 13 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua to SF 46 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson; 2-D.Lenoir).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (5:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (3:02) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 38 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa).