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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.40 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP