Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(10:10) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to SF 18, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model