Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(:32) 42-E.Evans punts 72 yards to SF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 3-R.McCloud to SF 26 for 13 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model