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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP