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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP