4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model