Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 17

(8:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to LA 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-K.Williams to LA 28 for 11 yards (30-G.Odum; 24-J.Mason).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.92 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model