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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua to SF 46 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson; 2-D.Lenoir).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model