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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LAC
57.9%
TEN
42.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LAC

Austin Ekeler RB Doubtful Ankle
Eric Kendricks LB Doubtful Hamstring
Daiyan Henley LB Doubtful Hamstring
Chris Rumph DE Doubtful Hamstring
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Amani Hooker S Out Concussion
Kristian Fulton CB Out Hamstring
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Ankle
Peter Skoronski T Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 24
–
TEN 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:49 FG LAC (3:49) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – TEN 0
  • Q2 08:24 TD LAC (8:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key]. PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. Penalty on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. LAC 9 – TEN 0
  • Q2 07:12 TD TEN (7:12) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 11 – TEN 6
  • Q2 04:27 FG LAC (4:27) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 14 – TEN 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. LAC 14 – TEN 10
  • Q3 10:14 TD TEN (10:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – TEN 16
  • Q4 14:41 TD LAC (14:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – TEN 17
  • Q4 02:25 TD TEN (2:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 21 – TEN 23
  • Q4 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 24 – TEN 24
  • Q5 05:06 FG TEN (5:06) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. LAC 24 – TEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:31) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to TEN 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 40 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 48 for -6 yards (9-K.Murray).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 84%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams pushed ob at TEN 7 for 20 yards (24-E.Molden).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (3:49) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 36 for 13 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 47%

    (14:13) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 63%

    (10:13) 12-D.Davis left end pushed ob at TEN 28 for 10 yards (2-A.Al-Shaair). PENALTY on TEN-2-A.Al-Shaair, Horse Collar Tackle, 14 yards, enforced at TEN 28.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (8:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key]. PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. Penalty on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (4:27) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (:03) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:08) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 5-K.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 20 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (2:49) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:37) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 34 for 20 yards (56-M.Rice).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to TEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 5-K.Jackson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 35 for 11 yards (57-L.Gifford; 36-J.Chestnut).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%

    (6:08) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to TEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 5-K.Jackson.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (:03) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.