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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams pushed ob at TEN 7 for 20 yards (24-E.Molden).

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model