Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to TEN 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 40 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model