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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to TEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 5-K.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.25 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP