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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Tennessee Titans
4th & 4 at the 46
Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 48 for -6 yards (9-K.Murray).
The Three Options
GO
+0.22 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.39 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
KICK
-0.65 EP
- 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
