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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 12-D.Davis left end pushed ob at TEN 28 for 10 yards (2-A.Al-Shaair). PENALTY on TEN-2-A.Al-Shaair, Horse Collar Tackle, 14 yards, enforced at TEN 28.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model