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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +2.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model