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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 36 for 13 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model