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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TB
34.8%
MIN
65.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.138 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TB

Cody Mauch G Questionable Back
Calijah Kancey DT Questionable Calf

MIN

Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
MIN 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:27 FG TB (3:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – MIN 0
  • Q2 11:21 TD MIN (11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined. TB 3 – MIN 6
  • Q2 05:43 FG MIN (5:43) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. TB 3 – MIN 10
  • Q2 01:14 TD TB (1:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – MIN 10
  • Q3 06:06 TD TB (6:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – MIN 10
  • Q4 13:43 TD MIN (13:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Mattison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – MIN 16
  • Q4 05:15 FG TB (5:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 20 – MIN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:23) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to TB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 33 for 13 yards (42-A.DePaola; 98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:45) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to MIN 12, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 13 for 1 yard (27-Z.McCollum).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to MIN 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 26 for 7 yards (49-C.Gill).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (3:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:14) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to TB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 20 for no gain (11-N.Thompson). PENALTY on TB-8-S.Dennis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (14:21) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to MIN 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 35 for 15 yards (26-K.Merriweather). PENALTY on MIN-83-J.Nailor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 27.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to MIN 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-97-Z.Triner.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (5:43) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to MIN 11, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 14 for 3 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:46) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to TB 39, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:21) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:03) 14-R.Wright punts 54 yards to TB 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 23 for no gain (83-J.Nailor).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:18) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to TB 33 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 63%

    (5:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:03) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to TB 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 30 for 16 yards (33-B.Asamoah).