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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to MIN 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 26 for 7 yards (49-C.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model