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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to MIN 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 35 for 15 yards (26-K.Merriweather). PENALTY on MIN-83-J.Nailor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.46 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 83, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 41, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP