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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to TB 33 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model