4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to MIN 12, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 13 for 1 yard (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model