Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(9:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to MIN 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-97-Z.Triner.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.16 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model