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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to MIN 11, Center-97-Z.Triner. 4-B.Powell to MIN 14 for 3 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model