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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model