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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to TB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 20 for no gain (11-N.Thompson). PENALTY on TB-8-S.Dennis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.41 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP